The Next Pope and the Future of Global Catholicism

With the news of Pope Francis’ failing health, I have had this blog post on the back burner for some time. Now that he has passed, I find that for me (and probably for many other people too), this feels like the end of an era.

Francis was more than a pope. He was a symbol of a Church trying to rediscover its soul. And, I should mention, he was the first Jesuit to serve as Pope. With his quiet humility, sharp moral clarity, and deep love for the poor and marginalized, he invited the Catholic world to walk a different path—one that prioritized mercy over judgment, encounter over exclusion, and the Gospel over institutional self-preservation.

Now, as the Church enters mourning, it also enters a moment of profound discernment. What kind of Church will we be after Francis?

A Legacy of Mercy and Tension

Francis didn’t change church doctrine in dramatic ways, but he changed the tone; and that, in many ways, changed everything. He spoke of a Church as a “field hospital,” not a courtroom. He reminded us that the shepherd should “smell like the sheep.” His encyclicals—Laudato Si’ on care for creation and Fratelli Tutti on human fraternity—called the faithful to engage the world with justice and tenderness.

Yet even with all that, his papacy was not without struggle. His push for greater dialogue and shared discernment across the global Church met resistance. Efforts to reform Vatican finances, address the sexual abuse crisis, and include LGBTQ+ Catholics moved forward haltingly. And despite his pastoral heart, many Catholics still felt unheard or left behind.

That’s the context in which the next pope will be elected. And it’s a tall order.

The Challenges Ahead

The new pope will face a global Church that is, frankly, a bit fractured—between north and south, liberal and conservative, doctrinal and pastoral camps. But the core challenges are clear:

• Relevance: In secularizing regions, especially the West, the Church struggles to reach younger generations. The next pope will need to speak with authenticity to a world that’s skeptical of institutions, but still hungry for meaning.
• Abuse and accountability: The wounds of the clergy abuse crisis remain painfully open. Survivors and the faithful are still waiting for deeper, more transparent systems of justice and healing.
• Inclusion and identity: The conversation around LGBTQ+ Catholics, women in leadership, and divorced and remarried couples won’t go away. The new pope will have to navigate these questions with both pastoral sensitivity and theological depth.
• Global diversity: The “Catholic” (universal) Church is increasingly centered in the Global South. Will the next pope reflect that shift—not just in background, but in worldview?

Who Might Step In to the Role?

As the conclave approaches, several cardinals are being talked about as possible successors. Each represents a different vision of what Catholic leadership could look like post-Francis. According to recent betting markets and Vatican watchers, here are a few frontrunners:

1. Cardinal Peter Erdő (Hungary)

A strong voice for tradition, Erdő is known for his legal mind and doctrinal clarity. He’s a favorite among those who feel the Church needs to reassert its moral teachings and restore order after years of perceived ambiguity.

2. Cardinal Matteo Zuppi (Italy)

A pastoral figure with deep connections to peacebuilding and the marginalized, Zuppi is seen as someone who could carry on Francis’ legacy with a bit more institutional savvy. He’s open to LGBTQ+ dialogue and has a Francis-like heart for the poor.

3. Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle (Philippines)

Charismatic, media-savvy, and deeply humble, Tagle embodies a global, evangelizing Church. Often described as “the Asian Francis,” he brings a warm pastoral presence but has never held a major Vatican governance role, which may be seen as a weakness.

4. Cardinal Christoph Schönborn (Austria)

An elder statesman with serious theological chops, Schönborn helped draft the Catechism and has balanced doctrinal fidelity with a pastoral touch—especially on issues like same-sex civil unions. His age may work against him, but his credibility is strong.

5. Cardinal Jean-Claude Hollerich (Luxembourg)

A key architect of the Synod on Synodality, Hollerich is very much in line with Francis’ vision of a listening Church. He’s expressed openness to rethinking some teachings, which excites reformers and alarms traditionalists.

6. Cardinal Angelo De Donatis (Italy)

A close spiritual ally of Francis and former Vicar of Rome, De Donatis is not widely known internationally, but his humility, prayerfulness, and continuity with Francis’ vision make him a sleeper candidate.

7. Cardinal Wilton Gregory (United States)

The first African American cardinal, Gregory’s leadership on racial justice and pastoral calm have earned him admiration. His election would signal a major shift toward a more inclusive global Church—but may face resistance from more conservative blocs.

8. Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besungu (DR Congo)

A compelling voice from Africa, Ambongo is a staunch advocate for environmental justice and social equity. He represents the growing center of Catholicism in the Global South and brings moral authority rooted in lived experience.

More Than a New Pope—A Crossroads

This isn’t just a change of leadership. This is a moment that could define the soul of Catholicism for decades to come. Will the cardinals choose continuity or course correction? A global voice or a Roman insider? A manager or a prophet?

As someone raised in a Catholic tradition shaped by the Jesuits, with a deep love for critical thinking, justice, and hope, I can’t help but feel a bit anxious about what’s next. Francis cracked open windows that had been sealed shut for far too long. He reminded us that the Gospel is about encounter, not exclusion. My hope is that the next pope continues that legacy and doesn’t allow the Church to go retreat into fear or rigidity.

Because what’s at stake isn’t just style or tone.

Francis once said:

“A Church that does not go out, sooner or later gets sick in the vitiated atmosphere of her enclosure.”

That’s the call: to keep going out. To resist the temptation to turn inward. To trust that the Holy Spirit is not finished with us yet.